Petrol Imports Surge 96.7% as Nigeria Balances Local Refining and Energy Security

New data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reveals a complex shift in Nigeria’s fuel landscape. In March 2026, petrol (PMS) imports surged by 96.7%, jumping from 3.0 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day.

This spike occurred alongside a notable growth in domestic supply, highlighting a transition phase where the country is leaning on both foreign imports and local production to maintain energy security.

The Numbers: Consumption vs. Supply

The March 2026 fact sheet provides a detailed look at the changing habits of the Nigerian market:

• Import Growth: Volumes nearly doubled to 5.9 million litres/day.

• Domestic Resilience: Local supply increased from 30.5 million to 34.2 million litres/day, continuing to account for the vast majority of fuel availability.

• Consumption Slump: Interestingly, daily petrol consumption fell from 56.9 million litres in February to 47.3 million litres in March, likely driven by higher pump prices.

• Inventory Strain: Stock sufficiency—the number of days current supplies can last—dropped from 30.7 days to 21.2 days, indicating a tighter market.

Strategic Reversal on Import Licences

The surge in imports marks a strategic adjustment by the regulator. Initially, the NMDPRA had restricted import licences to encourage the ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. However, to prevent supply gaps during this transition, licences were reinstated.

This “safety net” approach allowed the market to stay supplied even as the Dangote refinery adjusted its pricing—reaching ₦1,275 per litre in March—and other modular refineries, like Waltersmith, expanded their capacity.

Broader Energy Trends

The report also shed light on other critical energy segments:

• Gas Growth: Domestic gas supply rose to 4.888 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscf/d).

• Diesel (AGO) Contraction: Supply saw a sharp decline from 24.4 million to 10.3 million litres/day.

• LPG Stability: Supply remained steady at 4.7 kilotonnes/day, with a higher percentage coming from domestic sources.

Production Discrepancies

The month of March also highlighted a variation in reporting among top energy bodies. While the NUPRC reported early April production at 1.84 million bpd, the NNPC Ltd. placed the figure closer to 1.71 million bpd. These variations underscore the different methodologies used to track Nigeria’s total output during this high-growth period.