Global oil producers under the OPEC+ to Pause Oil Output Increases in Q1 2026 After December Hike

Global oil producers under the OPEC+ alliance have agreed to raise output slightly in December 2025, but then to pause further production increases during the first quarter of 2026.

The decision—to add just 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December and then hold steady in January through March—is being viewed as a strategic move to counter concerns of oversupply and soft seasonal demand in the global oil market.

Analysts say the pause sends a clear signal: while the alliance remains committed to unwinding past production cuts, it will proceed cautiously. According to HSBC, the group is still unlikely to reverse course and resume cuts unless Brent crude prices fall significantly.

The market response has been positive yet measured. Oil prices edged higher after the announcement, reflecting relief that supply will not rise rapidly—but inventory and demand concerns remain.

For energy stakeholders, the pause offers a window of stability—but also underscores that price volatility remains a factor as production strategies, global sanctions, and demand trends evolve.