Nigeria’s Crude Output Hits 1.38 Million bpd in March, OPEC Reports

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has confirmed a modest recovery in Nigeria’s upstream sector, with crude oil production rising to 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2026. According to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, this represents a 5.25% increase from the 1.31 million bpd recorded in February.

This uptick is a significant indicator of stability for Nigeria, especially as the broader OPEC alliance grappled with one of the most severe supply disruptions in decades.

The Data Gap: Direct Communication vs. Secondary Sources

OPEC utilizes two distinct reporting methodologies to track output, both of which showed growth for Nigeria in March:

• Direct Communication: Nigerian authorities reported an output of 1.38 million bpd.

• Secondary Sources: Independent energy intelligence platforms estimated the figure higher, at 1.46 million bpd (up from 1.44 million bpd in February).

Despite this progress, Nigeria remains approximately 117,000 bpd short of its current OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd. Closing this gap continues to be a top priority for the Nigerian petroleum sector as it navigates persistent structural and operational hurdles.

Nigeria Retains Lead as Africa’s Top Producer

The March performance allowed Nigeria to maintain its status as the leading oil producer on the continent. Its output of 1.38 million bpd outperformed Libya, which recorded a production level of 1.30 million bpd for the same period.

This domestic growth occurred against a backdrop of extreme global volatility. Total OPEC crude output plummeted by 27.5% in March, falling to 20.79 million bpd due to conflict-driven disruptions in the Middle East. While major Gulf producers saw massive declines, Nigeria’s ability to ramp up production highlights its growing importance as a stable alternative in a fractured global market.

Methodology and Reporting Variations

The report also sheds light on the varying production figures recently released by different agencies. While OPEC’s March average sits at 1.38 million bpd, recent real-time reports from Nigerian bodies offer a more aggressive outlook:

• NUPRC: Reported production hitting 1.84 million bpd in early April.

• NNPC Ltd: Estimated current output at 1.71 million bpd.

These variations are largely attributed to different reporting timelines and the inclusion of condensates in some domestic figures. However, all sources agree on one clear trend: Nigeria is successfully reversing the production slumps of early 2026.

Looking Ahead

As the global oil market faces a supply shock of nearly 8 million bpd, Nigeria’s recovery is timely. The focus for the second quarter of 2026 will be on sustaining this momentum to fully meet—and potentially exceed—OPEC quotas, providing much-needed fiscal relief and reinforcing Nigeria’s position as a cornerstone of African energy security.